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ID072474
Title ProperForecasting US-China relations, 2015
LanguageENG
AuthorGries, Peter Hays
Publication2006.
Summary / Abstract (Note)Rejecting the certainty of prediction in favor of a probabilistic approach to forecasting, this paper develops an eight-step forecasting methodology, addressing 1) structural drivers, 2) predetermined elements, 3) critical uncertainties, 4) chance, 5) scenarios, 6) probabilities, 7) signposts, and 8) policy implications, and applies it to the medium-term future of US-China relations. Specifically, it forecasts a 45 percent chance that US-China relations in 2015 will be best characterized overall by a rivals scenario, followed by a 35 percent chance that the US and China will be partners. The chances that the US and China will be allies or enemies are significantly more remote, but real, at 5 percent and 15 percent respectively.
`In' analytical NoteAsian Security Vol. 2, No. 2; 2006: p63-86
Journal SourceAsian Security Vol: 2 No 2
Key WordsUnited States ;  China ;  International Relations ;  Forecasting-2015


 
 
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