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ID087043
Title ProperNuclear capabilities in Southeast Asia
Other Title Informationbuilding a preventive proliferation firewall
LanguageENG
AuthorMalley, Michael S ;  Ogilvie-White, Tanya
Publication2009.
Summary / Abstract (Note)Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam recently announced that they are launching nuclear energy programs, and Malaysia and the Philippines soon may follow suit. As a result, by 2020, at least three states in Southeast Asia could possess latent nuclear capabilities-the option to pursue military applications of dual-use nuclear technology. Analysis of the nuclear programs, domestic proliferation pressures, and the external threat environment in Southeast Asia leads the authors to conclude that the nuclear intentions of states in that region are entirely peaceful and the probability of future nuclear breakout there is low. However, this finding does not justify complacency. In the long term, the benign outlook for regional security may change, and in the near term weak regulatory regimes present serious challenges to nuclear safety and create opportunities that non-state actors may exploit. To minimize these risks, the authors recommend creating a "proliferation firewall" around the region, which would combine strong global support for Southeast Asian nuclear energy programs with innovative regional multilateral nuclear arrangements.
`In' analytical NoteNonproliferation Review Vol. 16, No. 1; Mar 2009: p.25 - 45
Journal SourceNonproliferation Review Vol. 16, No. 1; Mar 2009: p.25 - 45
Key WordsSoutheast Asia ;  Nuclear Energy ;  Proliferation ;  Dual-Use Technology ;  Southeast Asian Nuclear Energy Programs ;  Nuclear Programs


 
 
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