| ID | 098701 |
| Title Proper | World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Dargay, Joyce M ; Gately, Dermot |
| Publication | 2010. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. |
| `In' analytical Note | Energy Policy Vol. 38, No. 10; Oct 2010: p6261-6277 |
| Journal Source | Energy Policy Vol. 38, No. 10; Oct 2010: p6261-6277 |
| Key Words | Oil ; Demand ; Elasticities |