| ID | 103476 |
| Title Proper | Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades |
| Other Title Information | a dynamic CGE analysis |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Aydin, Levent ; Acar, Mustafa |
| Publication | 2011. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | As a small open economy, Turkey depends on both imported oil and natural gas, importing almost two-thirds of its primary energy demand. This paper analyzes the economic effects of oil price shocks for Turkey as a small, open oil- and gas-importing country. To analyze the potential long-term effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables of interest, including GDP, consumer price inflation, indirect tax revenues, trade balance, and carbon emissions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model for the Turkish economy. Using TurGEM-D, we analyzed the impact of oil price shocks under three distinct scenarios: reference, high and low oil prices. The simulation results show that these oil prices have very significant effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions in the Turkish economy. |
| `In' analytical Note | Energy Policy Vol. 39, No. 3; Mar 2011: p.1722-1731 |
| Journal Source | Energy Policy Vol. 39, No. 3; Mar 2011: p.1722-1731 |
| Key Words | Oil Price Shocks ; Dynamic CGE ; Turkish Economy |