| ID | 111956 |
| Title Proper | Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Foucault, Martial ; Nadeau, Richard |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Who will win the next French presidential election? Forecasting electoral results from political-economy models is a recent tradition in France. In this article, we pursue this effort by estimating a vote function based on both local and national data for the elections held between 1981 and 2007. This approach allows us to circumvent the small N problem and to produce more robust and reliable results. Based on a model including economic (unemployment) and political (approval and previous results) variables, we predict the defeat, although by a relatively small margin, of the right-wing incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of the French presidential election to be held in May 2012. |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.2; Apr 2012: p.218-222 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.2; Apr 2012: p.218-222 |
| Key Words | France ; French Presidential Election - 2012 |