| ID | 113402 |
| Title Proper | Threat and risk |
| Other Title Information | what is the difference and why does it matter? |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Strachan-Morris, David |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Since the events of 9/11 the terms 'threat' and 'risk' have entered the daily lexicon to a greater extent than ever before. News media report on changes to national threat assessments, commenting when the threat level rises from 'Moderate' to 'Substantial', in the case of the United Kingdom. The British government recently released a document that provided details of the issues that pose the highest risk to the national infrastructure. All of these are based, so we are told, on the work of the national intelligence agencies. But what are these indicators actually telling us and what is the relationship between threat assessments and risk assessments? These are both important questions because important decisions are made as a result of changes in these assessments. National defence and security planning is based upon perceived threats and risks. An entire risk management industry has grown up in the business world that covers everything from health and safety to financial risk. It is not only governments and businesses that base decisions on these indicators, but individuals as well. Tourists planning holidays in Europe were alarmed when the British, French and German governments increased their threat levels in response to intelligence that suggested that an attack against tourist sites in their respective capitals was imminent. Some will have changed their plans and travelled elsewhere, to the detriment of the tourist industry, while others will have chosen to defy the terrorists and travel anyway - potentially placing themselves in harm's way. With so much at stake, both nationally and individually, it is therefore important that we understand the difference between a 'threat' and a 'risk' and, as scholars of intelligence, the role that intelligence plays in assessing them. |
| `In' analytical Note | Intelligence and National Security Vol. 27, No.2; Apr 2012: p.172-186 |
| Journal Source | Intelligence and National Security Vol. 27, No.2; Apr 2012: p.172-186 |
| Key Words | Threat ; Risk ; National Threat Assessments ; United Kingdom ; 9/11 ; National Intelligence Agencies ; National Defence and Security Planning ; Risk Management Industry ; Tourist Industry |