| ID | 116482 |
| Title Proper | Provincial output spillovers in China |
| Other Title Information | global vector autoregressive approach |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Peng, Hui ; Kim, Bonghan |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | The paper uses a global vector autoregressive model to examine provincial output spillover effects in China. We find that there are effective output spillovers from Guangdong, Liaoning and Zhejiang to other provinces in China, but trivial effects from Shanghai, Shandong, Sichuan and Xinjiang, and negative effects from Beijing. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Guangdong and Liaoning is the main channel for creating provincial output spillovers, compared with domestic investment and exports. However, FDI spillovers tend to decrease, with spillovers from exports and domestic investment rising over time, so that the spillover effects in Guangdong and Liaoning are non-persistent and highly volatile. Other channels of output spillover, such as domestic investment, should be enhanced. Impacts of shock from government expenditure on GDP vary significantly across time and provinces; inland and western provinces are most negatively affected. The heterogeneous spillover structure shows that regional policies might achieve better results than nationwide policies in reducing regional disparity. |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.4; Nov-Dec 2012: p.55-81 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.4; Nov-Dec 2012: p.55-81 |
| Key Words | China ; Global Vector Autoregressive Approach ; Regional Spillover ; Spillover Channel |