| ID | 126421 |
| Title Proper | Systematically biased beliefs about political influence |
| Other Title Information | evidence from the perceptions of political influence on policy outcomes survey |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Caplan, Bryan ; Crampton, Eric ; Grove, Wayne A ; Somin, Ilya |
| Publication | 2013. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Many scholars argue that retrospective voting is a powerful information shortcut that offsets widespread voter ignorance. Even deeply ignorant voters, it is claimed, can effectively punish incumbents for bad performance and reward them if things go well. But if voters' understanding of which officials are responsible for which outcomes is systematically biased, retrospective voting becomes an independent source of political failure rather than a cure for it. We design and administer a new survey of the general public and political experts to test for such biases. Our analysis reveals frequent, large, robust biases in voter attributions of responsibility for a variety of political actors and outcomes with a tendency for the public to overestimate influence, although important examples of underestimation also exist. |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol. 46, No.4; Oct 2013: p.760-767 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics Vol. 46, No.4; Oct 2013: p.760-767 |
| Key Words | Political Influence ; Policy Outcomes Survey ; Political Failure |