| ID | 134791 |
| Title Proper | National polls, district information, and house seats |
| Other Title Information | forecasting the 2014 midterm election |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Erikson, Robert S ; Bafumi, Joseph ; Wlezien, Christopher |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | This article presents a forecast of the 2014 midterm House election based on information available four to six months in advance. The approach builds on our forecasts of the 2006 (Bafumi, Erikson, and Wlezien 2008) and 2010 (Bafumi, Erikson, and Wlezien 2010a,b) midterm elections. 1 We incorporate information about the national forces at work in the election, which are evident early in the election year from generic congressional polls plus the party of the president. We also incorporate information about the districts themselves, which is reflected in their partisan predispositions and in other ways, most notably, whether the incumbent seeks reelection. To forecast the 2014 election, we simulate the national vote and district outcomes using the past as our laboratory, details about which we provide in the text that follows. |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol.47, No.4; Oct.2014: p.775-778 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics 2014-12 47, 4 |
| Standard Number | United States – US |