| ID | 137054 |
| Title Proper | Handling and mishandling estimative probability |
| Other Title Information | likelihood, confidence, and the search for Bin Laden |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Zeckhauser, Richard ; Friedman, Jeffrey A |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | In a series of reports and meetings in Spring 2011, intelligence analysts and officials debated the chances that Osama bin Laden was living in Abbottabad, Pakistan. Estimates ranged from a low of 30 or 40 per cent to a high of 95 per cent. President Obama stated that he found this discussion confusing, even misleading. Motivated by that experience, and by broader debates about intelligence analysis, this article examines the conceptual foundations of expressing and interpreting estimative probability. It explains why a range of probabilities can always be condensed into a single point estimate that is clearer (but logically no different) than standard intelligence reporting, and why assessments of confidence are most useful when they indicate the extent to which estimative probabilities might shift in response to newly gathered information. |
| `In' analytical Note | Intelligence and National Security Vol.30, No.1; Feb.2015: p.77-99 |
| Journal Source | Intelligence and National Security Vol: 30 No 1 |
| Standard Number | Military Operation |