Item Details
Skip Navigation Links
   ActiveUsers:4039Hits:20928876Skip Navigation Links
Show My Basket
Contact Us
IDSA Web Site
Ask Us
Today's News
HelpExpand Help
Advanced search

In Basket
  Article   Article
 

ID137597
Title ProperFuture is in the past
Other Title Informationprojecting and plotting the potential rate of growth and trajectory of the structural change of the Chinese economy for the next 20 years
LanguageENG
AuthorZhang, Jun ;  Xu, Liheng ;  Liu, Fang
Summary / Abstract (Note)Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20 years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6.02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8 percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross-country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that: (i) the value-added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; (ii) the value-added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; (iii) both the value-added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.
`In' analytical NoteChina and World Economy Vol. 23, No. 1; Jan/Feb 2015: p.21-46
Journal SourceChina and World Economy 2015-02 23, 1
Key WordsEconomic Growth ;  Convergence ;  Structural Change ;  Chinese Economy ;  Asian Economies