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ID140402
Title ProperStrategist's curse
Other Title Informationa theory of false optimism as a cause of war
LanguageENG
AuthorAltman, Daniel
Summary / Abstract (Note)This article proposes a new theory of false optimism as a cause of war. Named for its similarity to the winner's curse in auctions, this theory explains how and why established sources of misperception (cognitive, psychological, bureaucratic, and organizational) interact with the selection of one military strategy from a set of alternatives to produce a surprising amount of additional false optimism. Even if a state's general perceptions of how well it will fare in a potential war are not biased toward optimism, this theory explains why its perceptions of the particular strategy on which it will base its plans for fighting that war will be systematically biased toward optimism. Simulations and formal modeling confirm the logic of the theory and suggest that the strategist's curse can sharply increase the probability of war due to false optimism.
`In' analytical NoteSecurity Studies Vol. 24, No.2; Apr/Jun 2015: p.284-315
Journal SourceSecurity Studies Vol: 24 No 2
Key WordsMilitary Strategy ;  Psychological ;  Cognitive ;  Organizational ;  Bureaucratic ;  Strategist's Curse ;  Theory of False Optimism ;  Cause of War ;  Particular Strategy


 
 
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