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ID150053
Title Propereconomy-wide evaluation of new power generation in South Africa
Other Title Informationthe case of Medupi and Kusile
LanguageENG
AuthorBohlmann, Jessika ;  Bohlmann, Heinrich ;  Inglesi-Lotz, Roula ;  Heerden, Jan van
Summary / Abstract (Note)This paper investigates the role that the building of two new power stations, Medupi and Kusile, will play in facilitating future economic activity in South Africa. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the economy-wide effects of these new power stations. Our simulation results also provide insight into how much the local economy has lost due to inadequate electricity supply in the period leading up to the construction of Medupi and Kusile. We find that the decision to build additional power generation capacity was necessary and justified, and that the failure to sooner recognise the need for expansion of the country's electricity generation capacity and subsequent delays in commissioning Medupi and Kusile, likely cost the economy over R110bn in lost production. Additional analysis, in which a further two-year delay in the construction of Medupi and Kusile is simulated, shows that such an event will cause the economy to perform below baseline projections up to 2022.
`In' analytical NoteEnergy Policy Vol. 97, No.97; Oct 2016: p.450–460
Journal SourceEnergy Policy 2016-10 97, 97
Key WordsElectricity Supply ;  Computable General Equilibrium ;  UPGEM