| ID | 160737 |
| Title Proper | Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making |
| Other Title Information | underexposed issues, advancements, and ways forward |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Vis, Barbara ; Kuijpers, Dieuwertje |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research. |
| `In' analytical Note | Contemporary Security Policy Vol.39, No.4; Oct 2018: p.575-589 |
| Journal Source | Contemporary Security Policy Vol: 39 No 4 |
| Key Words | Decision-making ; Risk ; Uncertainty ; Foreign Policy Analysis ; Prospect Theory |