| ID | 165885 |
| Title Proper | Militarized Disputes, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Spaniel, William ; Smith, Bradley C ; Bradley C. Smith |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | How do new leaders impact crisis negotiations? We argue that opposing states know less about such a leader’s resolve over the issues at stake. To fully appreciate the consequences, we develop a multi-period bargaining model of negotiations. In equilibrium, as a proposer becomes close to certain of its opponent’s type, the duration and intensity of war goes to 0. We then test whether increase in leader tenure decrease the duration of militarized interstate disputes. Our estimates indicate that crises involving new leaders are 25.3 percent more likely to last one month than crises involving leaders with four years of tenure. Moreover, such conflicts are more likely to result in higher fatality levels. These results further indicate that leader tenure is a useful proxy for uncertainty. |
| `In' analytical Note | Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 63, No.5; May 2019: p.1222-1252 |
| Journal Source | Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol: 63 No 5 |
| Key Words | Conflict ; Game Theory ; Domestic Politics ; Leader Turnover |