| ID | 172107 |
| Title Proper | Theory-infused and policy-relevant |
| Other Title Information | on the usefulness of scenario analysis for international relations |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Sus, Monika ; Hadeed, Marcel |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Foresight exercises are increasingly popular among different actors across the globe. Particularly in the context of uncertainties in world affairs, decision-makers are increasingly relying on forward-reasoning to inform their policy. Yet international relations (IR) scholarship is still hesitant to adopt a scenario-based approach. We argue for the use of scenario analysis as a complementary method that is both disciplined and creative. Through scenario analysis, IR scholars simultaneously remain rigorous and provide policy-relevant input that grasps the dynamics of unpredictability of real-world issues. The article discusses the Multiple Scenario Generation method as an unconventional but useful tool, elaborates on its theoretical considerations and concludes with four innovations that scenario analysis can provide for IR scholarship. |
| `In' analytical Note | Contemporary Security Policy Vol. 41, No.3; Jul 2020: p.432-455 |
| Journal Source | Contemporary Security Policy Vol: 41 No 3 |
| Key Words | Methodology ; Scenario Analysis ; International Relations ; Foresight ; Multiple Scenario Generation |