| ID | 175740 |
| Title Proper | Global Law of Terror Organization Lifespan |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Goldman, Shlomo Ogen ; Bar, Leah |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | The study addresses the question of whether there is a global pattern of terror organization (TO) lifespan. Based on two datasets which include hundreds of organizations, we show that there is a global statistical law of TO lifespan distribution. This distribution describes populations of TOs in different contexts of periods, geographical locations, ideologies, etc. The data as a whole, as well as its subpopulations, seem to emerge from an exponential distribution, which is formulated as a mathematical model. This model enables the prediction of TOs’ global population decay rate. The findings were obtained by introducing a novel procedure, which formulates and validates this mathematical law for discrete empirical data. We suggest that human behavior generating informational cascades and a positive feedback loop, which influence the number of core members in a TO, may be the source of this global pattern. |
| `In' analytical Note | Terrorism and Political Violence Vol. 32, No.5-8; Jul-Dec 2020: p.1636-1665 |
| Journal Source | Terrorism and Political Violence Vol: 32 No 5-8 |
| Key Words | Survival ; Distribution ; Terror Organizations ; Longevity ; Life Span |