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ID184293
Title ProperFlight to Safety
Other Title InformationCOVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior
LanguageENG
AuthorBisbee, James ;  Honig, Dan
Summary / Abstract (Note)The relationship between anxiety and investor behavior is well known enough to warrant its own aphorism: a “flight to safety.” We posit that anxiety alters the intensity of voters’ preference for the status quo, inducing a political flight to safety toward establishment candidates. Leveraging the outbreak of the novel coronavirus during the Democratic primary election of 2020, we identify a causal effect of the outbreak on voting, with Biden benefiting between 7 and 15 percentage points at Sanders’s expense. A survey experiment in which participants exposed to an anxiety-inducing prompt choose the less disruptive hypothetical candidate provides further evidence of our theorized flight to safety among US-based respondents. Evidence from 2020 French municipal and US House primary elections suggests a COVID-induced flight to safety generalizes to benefit mainstream candidates across a variety of settings. Our findings suggest an as-yet underappreciated preference for “safe” candidates in times of anxiety.
`In' analytical NoteAmerican Political Science Review Vol. 116, No.1; Feb 2022: p.70 - 86
Journal SourceAmerican Political Science Review 2022-03 116, 1
Key WordsVoting Behavior ;  Flight to safety