| ID | 184293 |
| Title Proper | Flight to Safety |
| Other Title Information | COVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Bisbee, James ; Honig, Dan |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | The relationship between anxiety and investor behavior is well known enough to warrant its own aphorism: a “flight to safety.” We posit that anxiety alters the intensity of voters’ preference for the status quo, inducing a political flight to safety toward establishment candidates. Leveraging the outbreak of the novel coronavirus during the Democratic primary election of 2020, we identify a causal effect of the outbreak on voting, with Biden benefiting between 7 and 15 percentage points at Sanders’s expense. A survey experiment in which participants exposed to an anxiety-inducing prompt choose the less disruptive hypothetical candidate provides further evidence of our theorized flight to safety among US-based respondents. Evidence from 2020 French municipal and US House primary elections suggests a COVID-induced flight to safety generalizes to benefit mainstream candidates across a variety of settings. Our findings suggest an as-yet underappreciated preference for “safe” candidates in times of anxiety. |
| `In' analytical Note | American Political Science Review Vol. 116, No.1; Feb 2022: p.70 - 86 |
| Journal Source | American Political Science Review 2022-03 116, 1 |
| Key Words | Voting Behavior ; Flight to safety |