Item Details
Skip Navigation Links
   ActiveUsers:3997Hits:20961775Skip Navigation Links
Show My Basket
Contact Us
IDSA Web Site
Ask Us
Today's News
HelpExpand Help
Advanced search

In Basket
  Journal Article   Journal Article
 

ID185251
Title ProperDo International Interventions Prolong Civil Conflicts? the Effect of Ex Ante Expectations
LanguageENG
AuthorWatanabe, Tsukasa
Summary / Abstract (Note)Many studies have found that third-party intervention tends to prolong the duration of civil conflict. However, some studies have suggested that mere expectations of external intervention can prolong conflict duration even in the absence of actual intervention. Therefore, the effects of external interventions in prolonging the duration of civil conflicts remain unclear. This study examines the direct effect of third-party intervention on the duration of civil conflict by controlling for the indirect effect of expectations of external intervention. The probabilities of intervention were estimated, and the direct effect of interventions was tested by controlling for the effect of ex ante expectations. The empirical findings were as follows: (1) Third-party intervention has no direct effect of prolonging the duration of a conflict when expectations are controlled for, and (2) Third-party intervention may have an indirect effect of shortening conflict duration, which contradicts the findings of previous studies.
`In' analytical NoteArmed Forces and Society Vol. 48, No.2; Apr 2022: p.302-322
Journal SourceArmed Forces and Society Vol: 48 No 2
Key WordsCivil Wars ;  Third-Party Intervention ;  Expectations ;  International Relations


 
 
Media / Other Links  Full Text