| ID | 197197 |
| Title Proper | Crisis and COVID in North Korea |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Cha, Victor ; Katz, Katrin Fraser |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | A confluence of forces over the past year have increased the likelihood of militarised conflict on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea, emboldened by a new partnership with Russia and ongoing support from China, has embarked on a series of provocations while rejecting repeated US offers of dialogue. Inter-Korean tensions have also spiked due to the recasting of long-standing unification policies on both sides and Pyongyang’s bizarre balloon offensive. Given North Korea’s dismal domestic situation, exacerbated by its harsh three-year COVID-19 lockdown, the regime could stoke external conflict to distract its population. US election years are historically periods of heightened North Korean belligerence, and therefore further rounds of escalation are likely in the coming months. The US and its regional allies should focus on upholding deterrence and weakening the North Korea–China–Russia axis, while pursuing initiatives to alleviate the suffering of ordinary North Koreans. |
| `In' analytical Note | Survival : the IISS Quarterly Vol. 66, No.6; Dec-Jan 2024-2025: p.103-118 |
| Journal Source | Survival : the IISS Quarterly Vol: 66 No 6 |
| Key Words | Deterrence ; China ; North Korea ; Korean ; Peninsula ; COVID-19 ; balloon offensive |