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Srl | Item |
1 |
ID:
110741
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Publication |
2011.
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Summary/Abstract |
As the uncertainty of oil price increases, impacts of the influential factors on oil price vary over time. It is of great importance to explore the core factors and its time-varying influence on oil price. In view of this, based on the PATH-ANALYSIS model, this paper obtains the core factors, builds an oil price system VAR model, which uses demand, supply, price, and inventory as endogenous variables, and China's net imports as well as dollar index as exogenous variables. Then we set up a BVAR-TVP (Time varying parameter) model to analyze dynamic impacts of core factors on oil price. The results show that: (1) oil prices became more sensitive to oil supply changes, and the influence delays became shorter; (2) the impact of oil inventories on oil prices with a time lag of two quarters but has a downward trend; (3) the impact of oil consumption on oil prices with a time lag of two quarters, and this effect is increasingly greater; (4) the US dollar index is always the important factor of oil price and its control power increases gradually, and the financial crisis (occurred in 2008) further strengthens the influence of US dollar.
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2 |
ID:
092853
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Publication |
2009.
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Summary/Abstract |
Energy intensity reflects energy usage efficiency of an economy, in the process of production and consuming of economic output. Why does energy intensity fluctuate in China? In this paper, we explores the distortion of different energy prices, the change of energy structure, technological and final demand structure and their impact on energy intensity in China, based on the path analysis method and input-output structure decomposition model, respectively. And three results have been showed in this paper: first, proved that optimize the relative prices of different types of energy is the most important pricing mechanism when cut down the energy intensity; second, showed that the proportion of oil consumption is the limiting factor that has led to energy intensity change; third, built an input-output structure decomposition analysis model and analyzed technological changes, final demand structure changes, and their direct and indirect impact on energy intensity based on energy input-occupancy-output tables of 30 industry sectors of China in 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2004, which suggest that the fluctuation of energy intensity is mainly due to technology advances and the corresponding change in industrial structure.
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