| ID | 082211 |
| Title Proper | Assessing North Korean nuclear intentions and capacities |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Hymans, Jacques E C |
| Publication | 2008. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | This article develops a novel assessment of the nuclear program of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Using a theory-driven approach rooted in comparative foreign policy analysis, the article undermines two common assumptions about the DPRK nuclear threat: first, that the North Korean leadership's nuclear intentions are a measured response to the external environment and, second, that the DPRK has developed enough technical capacity to go nuclear whenever it pleases. In place of these assumptions, the article puts forth the general theoretical hypotheses that (1) the decision to go nuclear is rarely if ever based on typical cost-benefit analysis, and instead reflects deep-seated national identity conceptions, and (2) the capacity to go nuclear depends not only on raw levels of industrialization and nuclear technology, but also on the state's organizational acumen. Applied to the case of the DPRK, these hypotheses suggest that it has long been strongly committed to the goal of acquiring an operational nuclear deterrent, but also that it has been finding it very difficult to successfully implement that wish. The article also demonstrates that these hypotheses are supported by the meager evidence available on this case |
| `In' analytical Note | Journal of East Asian Studies Vol. 8, No.2; May-Aug 2008: p259-292 |
| Journal Source | Journal of East Asian Studies Vol. 8, No.2; May-Aug 2008: p259-292 |
| Key Words | Foreign Policy ; North Korea ; National Identity ; Neopatrimonialism ; Nuclear Proliferation |