| ID | 087867 |
| Title Proper | End of the "Paper Oil" era |
| Other Title Information | Ways to increase predictability and reduce the risks of the energy market |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Feygin, Vladimir |
| Publication | 2009. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | The world community has entered a period that will determine the future development of the economy and, possibly, the entire arrangement of the global system. Manifestations of the crisis are wide-reaching and multifaceted, while the unstable situation makes forecasting barely possible. Dynamical systems theory experts link such phenomena to the "points of bifurcation," at which the smooth trajectory of development ends and the system's behaviour undergoes a restructuring, the results of which are hard to predict.
Some weighty disproportions, underestimated interconnections and risks that were not embraced by an in-depth analysis or were simply hushed up have come to the surface. The crisis makes it easier to rethink the situation, as the dominant paradigm, which could scarcely be called into question in conditions of economic growth, is getting weaker.
The structure of economic ties that took shape in the past decades has serious inherent inconsistencies. The widespread conviction that the expanding global economy is stable by virtue of its scale and diversification of the participants' interests is creaking at the seams. The towering imbalances of world trade and U.S. deficits aggravate the general situation, but market participants cannot assess the situation adequately or counteract to it using the available instruments (hence the abrupt fluctuations of exchange rates). As a result, market participants often act relying on feelings (sometimes strange even for professional market analysts) that easily grow into panic. |
| `In' analytical Note | Russia in Global Affairs Vol. 7, No. 1; Jan-Mar 2009: p43-55 |
| Journal Source | Russia in Global Affairs Vol. 7, No. 1; Jan-Mar 2009: p43-55 |
| Key Words | Paper Oil ; Energy Market ; Manifestations ; Points of Bifurcation ; Global Economy |