| ID | 090220 |
| Title Proper | 2008 Campaign and the forecasts derailed |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Campbell, James E |
| Publication | 2009. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | On September 8, 2008, the Trial-heat Forecasting Model predicted that in-party candidate Senator John McCain would receive 52.7% of the national two-party popular presidential vote. The forecast of a victory of modest proportions for Senator McCain reflected his having a five-percentage-point lead over Senator Barack Obama in Gallup's early September, post-convention poll (49% to 44%) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis' August report of a 3.3% GDP growth rate in the second quarter of the year, about average for a second quarter election year economy. |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol. 42, No. 1; Jan 2009: p.19-20 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics Vol. 42, No. 1; Jan 2009: p.19-20 |
| Key Words | Campaign ; Forecasts ; Barack Obama ; Economy ; Election ; United States |