| ID | 090221 |
| Title Proper | Primary model in 2008 |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Norpoth, Helmut |
| Publication | 2009. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | The Primary Model predicted that Barack Obama would win a narrow victory with 50.1% of the major-party vote. Obama surpassed that forecast by just a little more than one standard error (2.5). How come the model came as close as it did with a forecast issued as early as January? What prevented it from coming even closer? And what might be done to improve the model? |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol. 42, No. 1; Jan 2009: p.20-21 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics Vol. 42, No. 1; Jan 2009: p.20-21 |
| Key Words | Primary Model - 2008 ; Obama ; Forecast ; Presidential Elections |