| ID | 092978 |
| Title Proper | Is it a Pearl or a kidney stone? intelligence reform and embassy reporting, from Moscow to Baghdad |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Smith, Raymond F |
| Publication | 2009. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | A July 1990 cable from the US Embassy in Moscow that anticipated the collapse of the Soviet Union is a case study for an analysis in this article that seeks to make three points: 1) major failures in intelligence analysis are more likely to result when all elements of the intelligence community speak with one voice than when they disagree; 2) embassy reporting can play an essential role independent of that of the intelligence community in shaping Washington thinking about international events, but a variety of developments have made this increasingly difficult; 3) probability analysis plays too great a role in intelligence products and risk management too little. |
| `In' analytical Note | Intelligence and National Security Vol. 24, No. 6; Dec 2009: p.836 - 864 |
| Journal Source | Intelligence and National Security Vol. 24, No. 6; Dec 2009: p.836 - 864 |
| Key Words | Pearl ; Kidney Stone ; Intelligence Reform ; Moscow ; Baghdad ; Soviet Union ; Intelligence Community ; Washington ; Risk Management |