| ID | 096134 |
| Title Proper | Keeping warming within the 2 °C limit after Copenhagen |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Macintosh, Andrew |
| Publication | 2010. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | The object of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 was to reach an agreement on a new international legal architecture for addressing anthropogenic climate change post-2012. It failed in this endeavour, producing a political agreement in the form of the Copenhagen Accord. The Accord sets an ambitious goal of holding the increase in the global average surface temperature to below 2 °C. This paper describes 45 CO2-only mitigation scenarios that provide an indication of what would need to be done to stay within the 2 °C limit if the international climate negotiations stay on their current path. The results suggest that if developed countries adopt a combined target for 2020 of =20% below 1990 levels, global CO2 emissions would probably have to be reduced by =5%/yr, and possibly =10%/yr, post-2030 (after a decade transitional period) in order to keep warming to 2 °C. If aggressive abatement commitments for 2020 are not forthcoming from all the major emitting countries, the likelihood of warming being kept within the 2 °C limit is diminutive. |
| `In' analytical Note | Energy Policy Vol. 38, No. 6; Jun 2010: p.2964-2975 |
| Journal Source | Energy Policy Vol. 38, No. 6; Jun 2010: p.2964-2975 |
| Key Words | Climate Change ; Mitigation ; International Climate Negotiations |