| ID | 098209 |
| Title Proper | Low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Gomi, Kei ; Shimada, Kouji ; Matsuoka, Yuzuru |
| Publication | 2010. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | On May 2008, Kyoto city government set up a low-carbon target of a 50% GHG reduction by 2030 compared to the 1990 level. To contribute to these discussions, we developed a local (city-scale) low-carbon scenario creation method. An estimation model was developed to show a quantitative and consistent future snapshot. The model can explicitly treat the uncertainty of future socio-economic situations, which originate from the openness of local economy. The method was applied to Kyoto city, and countermeasures to achieve the low-carbon target were identified. Without countermeasures, emissions would increase 12% from 2000. Among the measures, the reduction potential of energy efficiency improvements to residential and commercial sectors was found to be relatively large (15% and 18% of total reductions, respectively). The reduction potential of the passenger transport sector, in which the city government's policy is especially important, was 17% of the total amount. A sensitivity analysis showed that a 10% increase in exports leads to an 8.5% increase in CO2 emissions, and a 20% increase in the share of the commuters from outside the city leads to a 3.5% decrease of CO2 emissions because of the smaller number of residents in the city. |
| `In' analytical Note | Energy Policy Vol. 38, No. 9; Sep 2010: p.4783-4796 |
| Journal Source | Energy Policy Vol. 38, No. 9; Sep 2010: p.4783-4796 |
| Key Words | Low - Carbon Society ; Local Environmental Policy ; Backcasting |