| ID | 098553 |
| Title Proper | Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Hankey, Steve ; Marshall, Julian D |
| Publication | 2010. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Urban form - for example, sprawl versus infill development - impacts people's daily travel patterns and annual vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT). This paper explores how urban form impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger-vehicles, the largest source of urban transportation GHG emissions. Our research uses a recently published urban scaling rule to develop six scenarios for high- and low-sprawl US urban growth. We develop and apply a Monte Carlo approach that describes ensemble statistics for several dozen urban areas rather than forecasting changes in individual urban areas. Then, employing three vehicle- and fuel-technology scenarios, we estimate total passenger VKT and resulting GHG emissions for US urban areas. Our results indicate that comprehensive compact development could reduce US 2000-2020 cumulative emissions by up to 3.2 GtCO2e (15-20% of projected cumulative emissions). In general, vehicle GHG mitigation may involve three types of approaches: more-efficient vehicles, lower-GHG fuels, and reduced VKT. Our analyses suggest that all three categories must be evaluated; otherwise, improvements in one or two areas (e.g., vehicle fuel economy, fuel carbon content) can be offset by backsliding in a third area (e.g., VKT growth). |
| `In' analytical Note | Energy Policy Vol. 38, No. 9; Sep 2010: p.4880-4887 |
| Journal Source | Energy Policy Vol. 38, No. 9; Sep 2010: p.4880-4887 |
| Key Words | Smart Growth ; City Design ; Environmental Planning |