| ID | 105046 |
| Title Proper | Designing a viable prediction market to forecast defence acquisition cost and schedule outcomes |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Davis, Danny M |
| Publication | 2011. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision-making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to 'bet' on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market's beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest. |
| `In' analytical Note | Defence and Peace Economics Vol. 22, No. 3; Jun 2011: p351-366 |
| Journal Source | Defence and Peace Economics Vol. 22, No. 3; Jun 2011: p351-366 |
| Key Words | Information Market ; Prediction Market ; Government Acquisition ; Program Risk ; Cost Forecasting ; Schedule Forecasting ; Government Procurement ; Project Management ; Oversight ; Governance |