| ID | 113466 |
| Title Proper | Speculation and the 2008 oil bubble |
| Other Title Information | the DCOT report analysis |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Tokic, Damir |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | This article analyzes the CFTC's Disaggregated Commitments of Traders (DCOT) Report to get more insights into the behavior of different traders during the 2008 oil bubble. The analysis shows that: (1) the Money Manager category perfectly played the oil bubble, got in early and started selling shortly before the bubble peak; (2) the Producer/Merchant/Processor/User category and the Nonreportable category were covering their short positions into the peak of the bubble; (3) the Swap/Dealer category benefited while the price of oil was rising, but incurred heavy losses as the price of oil collapsed; (4) we find no indications of speculation by any group of traders via the positive feedback trading or rational destabilization; and (5) we do, however, criticize the commercial hedgers for failing to arbitrage the soaring oil prices in 2008. |
| `In' analytical Note | Energy Policy Vol. 45; Jun 2012: p.541-550 |
| Journal Source | Energy Policy Vol. 45; Jun 2012: p.541-550 |
| Key Words | 2008 Oil Bubble ; Speculation ; DCOT Report |