| ID | 114189 |
| Title Proper | Effects of the international security environment on national military expenditures |
| Other Title Information | a multicountry study |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Nordhaus, William ; Oneal, John R ; Russett, Bruce |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | We consider the influence of countries' external security environments on their military spending. We first estimate the ex ante probability that a country will become involved in a fatal militarized interstate dispute using a model of dyadic conflict that incorporates key elements of liberal and realist theories of international relations. We then estimate military spending as a function of the threat of armed interstate conflict and other influences: arms races, the defense expenditures of friendly countries, actual military conflict, democracy, civil war, and national economic output. In a panel of 165 countries, 1950 to 2000, we find our prospectively generated estimate of the external threat to be a powerful variable in explaining military spending. A 1 percentage point increase in the aggregate probability of a fatal militarized dispute, as predicted by our liberal-realist model, leads to a 3 percent increase in a country's military expenditures. |
| `In' analytical Note | International Organization Vol. 66, No.3; Summer 2012: p. 491-513 |
| Journal Source | International Organization Vol. 66, No.3; Summer 2012: p. 491-513 |
| Key Words | External Security Environment ; Military Spending ; Interstate Conflict ; International Relations ; Military Estimate ; Democracy ; Civil War |