| ID | 115063 |
| Title Proper | Perils of wishful thinking |
| Other Title Information | on Europe and the Middle East |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Laqueur, Walter |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Forecasting political events is always risky because chance plays such a decisive role in what becomes history. Given its inherent weaknesses, the breakdown of the Soviet Union, for instance, may have been inevitable. But if instead of Mikhail Gorbachev, appointed as General Secretary of the Communist Party as a sort of accident in 1985, a hard-liner had been chosen by the Politburo and if he and like-minded comrades had managed to hold onto power for another twenty years, what would we have witnessed? As the price of oil went up exponentially (from two dollars a barrel to as much as one hundred and fifty), the Soviet economy would have prospered, the empire would not have fallen apart, and the wisdom of the Communist Party and its leaders who brought about these gigantic achievements would have been praised. |
| `In' analytical Note | World Affairs US Vol. 174, No.6; Mar-Apr 2012: p.7-14 |
| Journal Source | World Affairs US Vol. 174, No.6; Mar-Apr 2012: p.7-14 |
| Key Words | Forecasting Political Enents ; Soviet Union ; Mikhail Gorbachev ; Communist Party |