| ID | 115064 |
| Title Proper | Korea's third Kim |
| Other Title Information | will anything change? |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Aoki, Naoko |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | The death of Kim Jong-il and subsequent dynastic transfer of power in North Korea caused a spasm of hope in the policy community that the secretive and totalitarian nation might embark on economic and political reforms. As the new leader, Kim Jong-un, was exposed to Western affluence while receiving his education in Switzerland-so the wishful thinking goes-surely he would realize the benefits of opening up his country. In fact, the young and inexperienced scion of the Kim dynasty derives his legitimacy solely from his family heritage. He has every reason to perpetuate the oppressive system built by his grandfather and buttressed by his father. In fact, how much Kim Jong-un's ideas and beliefs matter will remain questionable, at least over the short term. It is reasonable to assume that the untested leader will be guided by guardians or perhaps regents. This means that he may not be the one calling the shots, at least for the time being. The opaqueness of the power structure, meanwhile, has important implications for the outside world. The consolidation of power is likely to be still in progress, and it would take months-possibly even longer-for outside observers to learn how policies are determined. With Kim Jong-il, the world at least knew with whom it was dealing. Under Kim Jong-un, we may not even enjoy that advantage for some time to come. |
| `In' analytical Note | World Affairs US Vol. 174, No.6; Mar-Apr 2012: p.15-20 |
| Journal Source | World Affairs US Vol. 174, No.6; Mar-Apr 2012: p.15-20 |
| Key Words | North Korea ; Policy Community ; Political Reform ; Kim Jong-un ; Kim Jong-il ; United States |