| ID | 116454 |
| Title Proper | History and primary |
| Other Title Information | the Obama reelection |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Norpoth, Helmut ; Bednarczuk, Michael |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Democrat Barack Obama is going to defeat Republican Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin in the 2012 presidential election. This forecast comes from a statistical model that uses the primary performance of the candidates and a cycle in presidential elections to predict the presidential vote. In plain English, Obama has history on his side as well as the fact that he was unchallenged in the primaries. The model, called The Primary Model because of its heavy reliance on primaries, covers elections from 1912, the beginning of presidential primaries. Since 1952, however, only the New Hampshire Primary is used; we justify the choice of New Hampshire at some length. |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.4; Oct 2012: p.614-617 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.4; Oct 2012: p.614-617 |
| Key Words | Democrat Barack Obama ; Presidential Election - 2012 ; Barack Obama ; Presidential Vote ; New Hampshire |