| ID | 116458 |
| Title Proper | Forecasting the presidential and congressional elections of 2012 |
| Other Title Information | the trial-heat and the seats-in-trouble models |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Campbell, James E |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | This article presents forecasts of the 2012 presidential and US House of Representatives elections. The presidential forecasts are of the national two-party presidential vote percentage for the in-party candidate and are based on the trial-heat and economy forecasting equation and its companion convention-bump equation. The House election forecast is of the net seat change for the Democratic Party from 2010 to 2012. This forecast is produced from two versions of a seats-in-trouble forecasting equation. |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.4; Oct 2012: p.630-634 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.4; Oct 2012: p.630-634 |
| Key Words | US House of Representatives Elections ; Economy Forecasting Equation ; United States |