| ID | 116459 |
| Title Proper | Obama's reelection prospects under "bread and peace" voting in the 2012 US presidential election |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Hibbs, Douglas A |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period. In fact postwar aggregate votes for president are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities due to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign wars. No other outside variable systematically affects postwar aggregate votes for president. |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.4; Oct 2012: p.635-639 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.4; Oct 2012: p.635-639 |
| Key Words | American Presidential Elections ; Referendums ; Foreign Wars ; United States |