| ID | 116462 |
| Title Proper | Forecasting the 2012 presidential election with the fiscal model |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Cuzan, Alfred G |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | In March 2009, at a time when President Obama was basking in the glow of the honeymoon with the public every new president enjoys, I asked, "Will Barack Obama be a one-term president?" What prompted me to pose so impertinent a question at so hopeful a time was that the Office of Management and Budget was projecting that that year the federal government would spend 28% of gross domestic product (GDP). This amounted to a 7% point increase compared to the previous year, the largest peacetime one-year jump since 1930. The most recent estimate for 2012 is that federal outlays will take up 24.3% of GDP, up 3.5% points since 2008. This is the second-largest peacetime increase from one election year to the next since 1880, edged out only by Franklin D. Roosevelt's first-term surge of 3.6% points. |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.4; Oct 2012: p. 648-650 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics Vol. 45, No.4; Oct 2012: p. 648-650 |
| Key Words | President Obama ; Barack Obama ; GDP ; United States |