| ID | 117447 |
| Title Proper | Is a nuclear deal with Iran possible? an analytical framework for the Iran nuclear negotiations |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Sebenius, James K ; Singh, Michael K |
| Publication | 2012. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Varied diplomatic approaches by multiple negotiators over the past several years have failed to conclude a nuclear deal with Iran. Mutual hostility, misperception, and flawed diplomacy may be responsible. Yet, more fundamentally, no mutually acceptable deal may exist. To assess this possibility, a "negotiation analytic" framework conceptually disentangles two issues: (1) whether a feasible deal exists; and (2) how to design the most promising process to achieve one. Focusing on whether a "zone of possible agreement" exists, a graphical negotiation analysis precisely relates input assumptions about the parties' interests, their no-deal options, and possible deals. Under a plausible, mainstream set of such assumptions, the Iranian regime's no-deal options, at least through the fall of 2012, appear superior to potential nuclear agreements. If so, purely tactical and process-oriented initiatives will fail. Opening space for a mutually acceptable nuclear deal-one that avoids both military conflict and a nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable Iran-requires relentlessly and creatively worsening Iran's no-deal options while enhancing the value of a deal to the Iranian regime. Downplaying both coercive options and upside potential, as international negotiators have often done, works against this integrated strategy. If this approach opens a zone of possible agreement, sophisticated negotiation will be key to reaching a worthwhile agreement. |
| `In' analytical Note | International Security Vol. 37, No.3; Winter 2012: p.52-91 |
| Journal Source | International Security Vol. 37, No.3; Winter 2012: p.52-91 |
| Key Words | Diplomatic Approaches ; Nuclear Deal ; Diplomacy ; Iran ; Nuclear Agreements ; Military Conflicts |