| ID | 121865 |
| Title Proper | Impact of Eurozone financial shocks on Southeast Asian economies |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Menon, Jayant ; Thiam Hee Ng |
| Publication | 2013. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Five years after the global financial crisis, the economies of the United States and the eurozone continue to struggle. How will Southeast Asian economies be affected should there be a further deterioration in conditions in the eurozone? In this paper, we present estimates using a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model of the direct impacts of a further shock to the eurozone. We find that although the direct impacts are likely to be muted, it could trigger a much larger adjustment should it lead to a reassessment of risks and asset valuations. This is a real possibility given that vulnerability in the region has increased following massive inflows of capital and build-up of debt, related to successive bouts of quantitative easing in the United States initially, and now Japan. Should this happen, and with the IMF's resources already stretched, there is a pressing need to improve regional financial safety nets, which are currently unworkable, to deal with the fallout. |
| `In' analytical Note | ASEAN Economic Bulletin Change the Name of Journal of Southeast Asian Economies Vol. 30, No.2; Aug 2013: p.179-200 |
| Journal Source | ASEAN Economic Bulletin Change the Name of Journal of Southeast Asian Economies Vol. 30, No.2; Aug 2013: p.179-200 |
| Key Words | Eurozone Crisis ; Asset Bubbles ; Contagion ; Regional Financial Safety Nets ; Chiang Mai Initiative ; ASEAN ; ASEAN + 3 |