| ID | 122897 |
| Title Proper | Forecasting the onset of genocide and politicide |
| Other Title Information | annual out-of-sample forecasts on a global dataset, 1988-2003 |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Goldsmith, Benjamin E ; Butcher, Charles R ; Semenovich, Dimitri ; Sowmya, Arcot |
| Publication | 2013. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | We present what is, to the best of our knowledge, the first published set of annual out-of-sample forecasts of genocide and politicide based on a global dataset. Our goal is to produce a prototype for a real-time model capable of forecasting one year into the future. Building on the current literature, we take several important steps forward. We implement an unconditional two-stage model encompassing both instability and genocide, allowing our sample to be the available global data, rather than using conditional case selection or a case-control approach. We explore factors exhibiting considerable variance over time to improve yearly forecasting performance. And we produce annual lists of at-risk states in a format that should be of use to policymakers seeking to prevent such mass atrocities. Our out-of-sample forecasts for 1988-2003 predict 90.9% of genocide onsets correctly while also predicting 79.2% of non-onset years correctly, an improvement over a previous study using a case-control in-sample approach. We produce 16 annual forecasts based only on previous years' data, which identify six of 11 cases of genocide/politicide onset within the top 5% of at-risk countries per year. We believe this represents substantial progress towards useful real-time forecasting of such rare events. We conclude by suggesting ways to further enhance predictive performance. |
| `In' analytical Note | Journal of Peace Research Vol. 50, No.4; Jul 2013: p.437-452 |
| Journal Source | Journal of Peace Research Vol. 50, No.4; Jul 2013: p.437-452 |
| Key Words | Forecasting ; Genocide ; Political Instability ; Politicide |