| ID | 128842 |
| Title Proper | EU Without the Euro |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Heisbourg, Francois |
| Publication | 2014. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | The single currency was supposed to have led to greater political union, but the policies taken to ensure its survival are having the opposite effect. An orderly retreat from the euro might be the EU's least-bad option. As the euro area enters its seventh year of economic stagnation, the future of the European integration process remains in suspense. In the medium-to-long term, highly divergent scenarios remain possible, with variable degrees of likelihood, from full-blown federalisation at one extreme to the catastrophic collapse of the euro and of the European Union at the other. Somewhere in between comes the actual set of policies currently followed, sometimes described as 'muddling through', more aptly called 'muddling down' in terms of its effects on growth and mass unemployment. Since the middle of 2012, the mix of recessive policies of 'internal devaluation', limited pooling of eurozone liabilities and decisive intervention by the European Central Bank (ECB) have deferred for an undetermined period of time the risk of a disorderly break-up of the euro. The strategic consequences of this range of potential and actual policy paths have been discussed in previous issues of Survival. |
| `In' analytical Note | Survival: the IISS Quarterly Vol.56, No.2; April-May 2014: p.27-48 |
| Journal Source | Survival: the IISS Quarterly Vol.56, No.2; April-May 2014: p.27-48 |
| Key Words | Europe ; Global Financial Crisis ; Geo-Economics ; International Organisations ; Treaties ; Geopolitics ; European Union - EU ; European Currency - Euro ; European Central Bank - ECB ; Economic Policy ; European Economy |