ID | 128974 |
Title Proper | Is China's social unrest the source of its foreign policy? a preliminary study on the impact of domestic instability on external relations |
Language | ENG |
Author | Yamaguchi, Shinji |
Publication | 2013. |
Summary / Abstract (Note) | The basic question this paper asks is how the domestic instability in China will affect external action. China's society is undergoing a major change along with its economic growth, with various social contradictions deepening, including gaps between the rich and the poor. These social contradictions occasionally erupted in riots and demonstrations. Scholars have argued what sorts of external action these developments would lead to, on which there are two camps of thought: (i) expansion, and (ii) compromises. The problem is that for what reasons and through what mechanisms the domestic instability would lead to external actions have not yet been fully clarified. Domestic instability does not necessarily always influence external actions in all countries. There should be some conditions in order for domestic instability to influence external actions. This paper argues that the intervening variable that links domestic issues to external policy is the stability of the political system. From this perspective, the current instability of China's political system is only limited and the likelihood that domestic problems should be diverted to its external policy is not so high at the present stage. For the moment at least, China is not in a situation where domestic instability would lead to hard-line external policy, as suggested by diversionary theory. That is because the extent to which domestic problems in China can make the political system itself unstable is limited. Meanwhile, regarding the claim that China cannot compromise on external policy under the watchful eyes of the domestic elite or society as a whole, as suggested by audience cost theory, there is both supporting and negating evidence at present. |
`In' analytical Note | NIDS Journal of Defense and Security Vol.14; Dec 2013: p.19-34 |
Journal Source | NIDS Journal of Defense and Security Vol.14; Dec 2013: p.19-34 |
Key Words | China ; Economic Growth ; Social Contradictions ; Domestic Instability ; External Actions ; Political System ; External Policy |