| ID | 130232 |
| Title Proper | Using enhanced analytic techniques for threat analysis |
| Other Title Information | a case study illustration |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Spielmann, Karl |
| Publication | 2014. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | This is intended as an instructional supplement to a methodology I proposed in my earlier article "Strengthening Intelligence Threat Analysis." 1 Through the presentation of a hypothetical case study, I hope to facilitate analysts' use of that proposed methodology by walking them through the major tests that comprise its assessment process.
Accurately determining the nature and likelihood of a threat from terrorists or state actors can be very difficult, with high costs for failure. This proposed methodology is a tool to help analysts better provide clear, timely, and well-substantiated warning to key decisionmakers. Its assessment process has three tests, which build on each other to determine the strengths and weaknesses of different possible views on a threat. The first two tests yield important interim results, affording early intelligence inputs for decisionmaking. When completed, the testing provides a numerical basis for ranking competing views, enabling more precise and transparent judgments to be made on a threat's probability than is common practice. |
| `In' analytical Note | International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Vol.27, No.1, Spring 2014: p.132-155 |
| Journal Source | International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Vol.27, No.1, Spring 2014: p.132-155 |
| Key Words | Strengthening Intelligence ; Threat Analysis ; Violence ; Intelligence Service ; Human Rights ; Counter Terrorism ; Counterintelligence ; Counterinsurgencies ; Insurgencies ; CIA ; FBI ; NIA ; National Security ; Analytic Techniques ; Enhanced Analytic Techniques - EAT |