| ID | 130275 |
| Title Proper | Refugee flows, ethnic power relations, and the spread of conflict |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Krcmaric, Daniel |
| Publication | 2014. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Why do some refugee flows cause conflict in the host state and others do not? Drawing on bargaining models of war, I argue refugees are especially likely to cause conflict when they alter the host state's ethnic balance of power. More specifically, I explain why multiple informational and commitment problems arise when refugee flows produce a rapid shift in relative power between ethnic groups. As an empirical strategy, I examine a unique controlled comparison made possible by the influx of Kosovar refugees into Albania and Macedonia in 1999 that eliminates over a dozen competing explanations for civil conflict. I then use process tracing to demonstrate how a change in relative power between ethnic groups fostered violence in Macedonia, whereas the preservation of the ethnic balance facilitated a peaceful refugee flow into Albania. This evidence, though tentative, indicates that a refugee flow's effect on the host state's ethnic balance of power can help explain whether the state experiences peace or conflict. |
| `In' analytical Note | Security Studies Vol.23, No.1; January-March 2014: p.182-216 |
| Journal Source | Security Studies Vol.23, No.1; January-March 2014: p.182-216 |
| Key Words | Refugees ; Ethnic Power ; Power Relations ; Ethnic Power Relations - EPR ; Conflicts ; Ethnic Conflict ; Ethnic Balance ; Empirical Strategy ; Violence ; Macedonia ; International Problem ; Commitment Problems |