| ID | 133251 |
| Title Proper | Peak energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Yuan, Jiahai ; Xu, Yan ; Hu, Zheng ; Zhao, Changhong |
| Publication | 2014. |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | China is in the processes of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Based on the Kaya identity, this paper proposes an analytical framework for various energy scenarios that explicitly simulates China×s economic development, with a prospective consideration on the impacts of urbanization and income distribution. With the framework, China×s 2050 energy consumption and associated CO2 reduction scenarios are constructed. Main findings are: (1) energy consumption will peak at 5200-5400 million tons coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2035-2040; (2) CO2 emissions will peak at 9200-9400 million tons (Mt) in 2030-2035, whilst it can be potentially reduced by 200-300 Mt; (3) China×s per capita energy consumption and per capita CO2 emission are projected to peak at 4 tce and 6.8 t respectively in 2020-2030, soon after China steps into the high income group. |
| `In' analytical Note | Energy Policy Vol.68, May 2014: p.508-523 |
| Journal Source | Energy Policy Vol.68, May 2014: p.508-523 |
| Key Words | Energy consumption ; CO2 emissions ; Long-term scenario ; China ; Energy and Environment ; Economic Development China ; Urbanization ; Industrial Structure- China ; Energy Intensity |