| ID | 134794 |
| Title Proper | Election fundamentals and polls favor the republicans |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Sides, John ; Highton, Benjamin ; McGhee, Eric |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Our congressional forecasting model provides predictions of individual House and Senate races as well as aggregate party seat shares in each chamber. It does so by marrying an underlying structural or “fundamentals”-based model with available polling data—an approach similar to Linzer (2013).
The structural portion of the model is based on contested House and Senate elections from 1980 to 2012, excluding those when an independent or third-party candidate won a significant share of the vote. 1 The dependent variable is the Democratic candidate’s share of the major-party vote. The independent variables are drawn from the extensive literature that has identified significant national and state or district correlates of congressional election outcomes (e.g., Jacobson 2012). These include: |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol.47, No.4; Oct.2014: p.786-788 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics 2014-12 47, 4 |
| Standard Number | United States – US |