| ID | 134897 |
| Title Proper | U.S. strategic intelligence forecasting and the perils of prediction |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Miller, Bowman H |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Prediction, even of tomorrow's weather, remains a decidedly inexact science, but forecasting strategic geo-political or economic change is vastly more challenging. The Old Farmers’ Almanac has been in continuous publication in the United States since 1792, predicting long-term weather patterns and phases of the moon, among other things. But in 1942 the U.S. government sought to ban its publication after a German spy with a copy of the Almanac was apprehended. Suspicions centered on what the German might have found of intelligence value in this household volume, with special concern focused on “weather forecasts.” Confronted with a potential wartime ban on its publication, the Almanac relabeled that section “weather indications,” and the threatened ban was vacated. 2 The Almanac's “prediction” had nothing to do with warfare and everything to do with when to plant crops and gardens. |
| `In' analytical Note | International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence Vol.27, No.4; winter 2014-15: p.687-701 |
| Journal Source | International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence Vol: 27 No 4 |
| Key Words | Forecasting ; Almanac ; Weather Forecasting ; Strategic Intelligence ; Prediction ; US Intelligence ; Intelligence Forecasting |