| ID | 149333 |
| Title Proper | Forecasting presidential nominations in 2016 |
| Other Title Information | #WePredictedClintonANDTrump |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Dowdle, Andrew J ; Sebold, Karen ; Adkins, Randall E ; Cuellar, Jarred |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996–2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations in 2016. This outcome suggests that some fundamental factors governing nomination outcomes have not changed despite the conventional wisdom. |
| `In' analytical Note | Political Science and Politics Vol. 49, No.4; Oct 2016: p. 691-695 |
| Journal Source | Political Science and Politics 2016-12 49, 4 |
| Key Words | Forecasting ; Clinton ; Presidential Nominations ; 2016 ; Trump |