| ID | 151112 |
| Title Proper | Coup risk, coup-proofing and leader survival |
| Language | ENG |
| Author | Sudduth, Jun Koga |
| Summary / Abstract (Note) | Under what conditions do political leaders enact ‘coup-proofing’ strategies? There is a broad consensus in the literature that political leaders who face a higher risk of a coup will employ coup-proofing strategies that reduce the military’s capabilities to organize a coup. A closer look at the theory and empirical analyses of earlier studies, however, suggests that the presumed relationship between coup risk and coup-proofing should be re-examined. Drawing on insights from formal studies of authoritarian power-sharing, this article proposes that political leaders become less likely to initiate coup-proofing efforts as the coup risk increases. The reason is that leaders’ coup-proofing actions in themselves could prompt the military to launch a coup and thus political leaders will hesitate to offend officers when they face a high risk of a coup. The statistical models in this article estimate a latent coup risk by aggregating multiple indicators that capture the military’s willingness and ability to organize a coup. The empirical results strongly support the proposition that coup-proofing efforts taken by leaders decrease as coup risk increases. |
| `In' analytical Note | Journal of Peace Research Vol. 54, No.1; Jan 2017: p.3-15 |
| Journal Source | Journal of Peace Research Vol: 54 No 1 |
| Key Words | Civil-Military Relation ; Coups ; Coup-Proofing ; Leader Survival |